Expectation of Fed ra上海乌托邦s an over-reaction

Herd instinct is the human nature to follow the crowd and act collectively – and market expectation always does not change smoothly but t

上海乌托邦ends to over-react to new information. The current market expectation of the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts is a case in point.

On June 20, the latest meeting of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee shrugged off the market’s high expectation of rate cuts and gave no clear policy signal confirming a cut.

We believe the market had overreacted in forming its expectation of rate cuts after the Fed swiftly adopted a dovish tone from the end of last上海乌托邦

year. Specifically, we believe market expectation – it has formed since May – of a change in policy stance, as well as the timing and degree of rate cuts, may not fully materialize.

We will elaborate on this now. It should be noted the misconceived expectation of Fed rate cuts could ind上海乌托邦

uce a drastic reversal in investor sentiment and asset price fluctuations, if the Fed’s moves miss expectation.

Firstly, the market may have overestimated the degree of the Fed’s policy stance change. A clear rate cut signal may not emerge until the end of this month.上海乌托邦

According to Bloomberg, the Fed funds futures market has recently priced in a 98.5-percent chance that the Fed will lower rates at least once this year.

上海乌托邦品茶微信However, the Fed’s earlier forward guidance only indicated the end of monetary policy n

ormalization, which does not necessarily point to the beginning of a rate cut cycle. Also, the Fed h

as removed the word “patient” from the latest FOMC meeting statement but did not confirm a rate-cut stance.

We believe that because of the following two reasons, the Fed is still on cautious lookout, and t

here will not be any clear rate cut signal or plan until the next FOMC meeting at the end of this month.上海乌托邦品茶微信

Externally, the Fed is expected to stand pat until trade dispute uncertainties ease, to give itself an advantage in its game with the US Administration.

The Fed would put itself in an unfavorable position if it initiated a rate cut before majo上海乌托邦品茶微信

r uncertainties over the China-US trade dispute are removed, because the pre-emptive move may enc

ourage the US Administration to escalate the trade dispute, which will in turn pose a dilemma to the Fed.

That’s because any escalation in trade tensions will, on the one hand, d

ssipate and even offset the easing boost from rate cuts and force the Fed to accelerate the上海乌托邦品茶微信

rate cut pace. On the other hand, the escalation could further fuel imported inflation, which will significantly reduce the

Fed’s room for rate cuts. The Fed will then face a policy-making dilemma of whether to further cut rates.

www.shejio.org

ge group callisthenics and 上海会所品茶微信s held at the May

Xi and his wif上海会所品茶微信g Liyuan, were greeted by Kim and

his wife, Ri Solju, at Pyongyang Sunan International Airport upon their arrival.

Under Chinese and DPRK national flags and large welcome banners, nearly 10,000 people

lined up at the airport, waving flowers and chanting cheerful slogans to greet the Chinese guests.

Following a grand welcoming ceremony complete with a 21-gun salute, Xi headed to the square of

the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, where he became the first foreign leader to receive a salute at the hi

ghly symbolic site. Hundreds of thousands of people lined up along the road from the airport, waving flags and flo

wers and chanting “Long Live the China-DPRK Friendship” and other slogans to welcome Xi.

www.ubnpqz.cn

ing addresses the 1上海会所女神会所 Council of Heads of

President calls 上海会所女神会所on members to support regional links to Belt and Road Initiative

Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization should follow the trend of economic globalization and

build the SCO into a community with a shared future, President Xi Jinping said on Friday.

Xi made the remark while delivering a speech at the 19th

meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan’s capital.

SCO members should promote the multilateral trading system, buil

d an open global economy and put forward more policies to facilitate trade and investment, he said.

Xi proposed making full use of cooperation platforms such as the China Intern

ational Import Expo to promote the openness, exchanges and integration of regional economies.

www.fangzhenjiang.cn

It is the first time in eight years that a Chinese defense

 minister has participated in the event.Building a community with a shared future for mankind is the right path forward and the

trend of the times amid growing uncertainty and instability around the world, he said.

“No approaches to regional issues should resort to military blocs, nor should they undermine the interests of others,” Wei said.

He called out the United States for its military support to Taiwan and naval operations in

the South China Sea, saying they have undermined China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

China resolutely follows the path of peaceful development and this commitment is en

shrined in the constitutions of both the Communist Party of China and the People’s Republic of C

hina, Wei said. “If this is not convincing enough for some people, nothing will be.”

zsdbv.cn

Literature fest sparks rural rebootLiterature Prize anliang Li

An event set up by film director Jia Zhangke featuring leading proponents of a school of writing from Shanxi aims to place the province on China’s literary map.

Jiajiazhuang village in Fenyang, Shanxi province, sits around 600 kilometers southwest of Beijing.

Once known for its collective economy that helped draw its population out of poverty, it has now gained another label than

ks to film director Jia Zhangke, who was born in 35ang in 1970, just a short distance from the village.

Jia has devoted much of his time to regenerating the area’s cultural legacy, not only through movies, but also through literature.

To do that, Jia set up the first Lyuliang Literature Festival, which was held from May 9 to 16

www.qianpadae.com

Terracotta Warriors begin tour of duty at Australian museum

Eight life-size Terracotta Warriors from China are among the works sho

wn as part of a rare exhibition being hosted by the National Gallery of Victoria in Melbourne.

The exhibition, Terracotta Warriors: Guardians of Immortality/Cai Guo-Qiang: The Transient Landscape, runs from May 24 to Oct 13.

It offers a new perspective on China’s traditional culture with more than 160 exhibits

on show, including the Qin emperor’s Terracotta Warriors, which were discovered in 1974 in China’s nor

thwestern Shaanxi province, and are widely described as one of the wonders of the world.

The exhibition features eight warriors and two life-size horses from the im

perial army, as well as two half-size replicas of bronze chariots, each drawn by four horses.

www.117xe.cn

The two countries should make further contributions to

promoting a new type of international relationship and building a community with a shared future for mankind, Xi said.

Mourao extended President Bolsonaro’s greetings and bes

t wishes, and delivered a letter from the Brazilian president to Xi.

The new Brazilian administration led by Bolsonaro attache

s great importance to relations with China, Mourao said.

Brazil speaks highly of China’s important contributions to promoti

ng global economic growth and considers China to be a reliable and stable partner, he said.

Brazil would like to connect the country’s investment partners plans with the Belt and

Road Initiative and expand cooperation with China in areas including trade, techno

www.daochuwan.cn

China will further open the financial market to welcom

e more overseas investors in. The cross-border trade and investment will be more free and convenient, said Pan.

He called China’s economy stable, as the major economic indicators were within a reasonable range.

In April, the National Bureau of Statistics said the purchasing ma

nagers’ index for the manufacturing sector stood at 50.1, indicating expansion as the reading was above 50.

The broad money supply, or M2, increased 8.5 percent year-on-year by the end of April, compared with 8.3 percent a year earlier.

“The prudential monetary policy was focused on countercyclical adjustments this year, maintaining flexibility as well as

ample liquidity to promote fast growth of credit and strengthened support of private and small enterprises,” Pan added.

hebeishengxin.cn

The ministry also released several typical cases that we

n April 2018, Shanghai police arrested eight people from Shanlin (Shanghai) Financial In

formation Service Co, which was involved in illegal fundraising of more than 60 billion yuan.

The company, with a registered capital of 1.2 billion yuan, adopted a physical store and online ma

rketing to take public deposits. From October 2013, the company opened over 1,000 physical stores

across the nation and trained its employees to sell financial products through advertising and telemarketing wit

h the promise of high interest. In 2015, the company opened online financing platforms to raise money.

The company’s claimed investment projects were found to have no profit

ability, resulting in a huge capital gap that prevented it from repaying investors’ principal and interest. Last

www.clevru.cn

School students and adult visitors learn about making pri

nts and carving stamp seals and learn about the appreciation of and technological metho

ds being used in the conservation of the age-old buildings at the Palace Museum, MayIn celebration of this

year’s International Museum Day, the Palace Museum in Beijing turned itself into a dynamic stage on Saturday an

d offered a variety of activities to echo this year’s theme, “Museums as Cultural Hubs: The Future of Tradition”.

Students and adult visitors were invited to the museum to learn about

making prints and carving stamp seals and to learn about the appreciation of and tec

hnological methods being used in the conservation of the age-old buildings at the Palace Museum.

The Chinese Musicians Association’s choir gave an outdoor performance. An exhibitio

n opened showing dozens of lithographs by artists from countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative.

gjrcpx.org